In any case, the fact that the goal is super-hard should not hinder research into the ingredients of the Singularity: Artificial Intelligence is the field that will most likely contribute to the Singularity. And intelligence is about algorithmic heuristics, which are essentially based on the law of large numbers – the idea that a random event may seem unlikely for a large number of tries.
Incremental progress will be hard, therefore most likely an algorithmic heuristic: It is a specific search for the optimal (random) algorithmic heuristic. (In the past, the optimal algorithm that generated the greatest average payoff in a certain context was found through a process of trial and error, which is not a general algorithmic heuristic, hence, becoming a Singularity is hard – and closes the loop to the spacing problem.).
Ray Kurzweil is 100% right about many of these things and has been exponential thinker since the 1970s. We find it a bit ironic that he is largely ignored in his own field due to those who used to admire him now criticizing him for not being sufficiently precise in his predictions. 7211a4ac4a